2008 Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Top 12
Derby Preview Next Week On ThoroughbredZone.com
4/21/08
We have made a few minor changes. Bob Black Jack and Court Vision have been added to the list. Hey Bryn and War Pass are off. We made a few other minor tweaks. The list largely remains the same. All the major preps have been run. Making any more changes at this point is a little redundant. The top 12 here all look like they will be in the Derby. Next week will take a closer look at the Kentucky Derby and give our opinion and comments on how the Kentucky Derby in the ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby preview. We will go over how the race might set up and who looks to have the best chance to win the roses.
1)(1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. Big Brown worked again this past Saturday April 19th at Palm Meadows. Everything went smooth and he did it easy. He is scheduled for one more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So far the feet issues remains a non-issue. He will wear special shoes on his front feet. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. Big Brown might be the most talented horse of this crop. He is physically imposing and has a big stride. The Derby will be his 4th lifetime start. History is not on his side, but history is not a guarantee of future results He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. If he were able to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a huge accomplishment considering his lack of racing experience.
2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3)(3) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5)(5) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby
6)(6) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.
7)(7) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
(6)(6) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9)(9) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10)(11) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Smooth Air moves up to number 10 this week. Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If he can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
(11)(-) Bob Black Jack – Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $4,500 (E) The speedball Bob Black Jack returns to the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. The $4,500 purchase turned out to be a real steal. He has of a world record and a track record over the new Santa Anita synthetic surface. Has yet to run on a dirt surface, but there is no doubt that he is a fast horse out of the gate. Bob Black Jack could very well figure to be a huge pace factor as he is one of the main speeds now that War Pass is out. Bob Black Jack has modest breeding. He is out of Stormy Jack. Bob Black Jack certainly has the speed to get a call for sure, but the big question is if this horse wants anything to do with a 1 ¼. He ran a determined second in the Santa Anita Derby to the highly regarded Colonel John. If you like speed, Bob Black Jack is your horse. We feel he will be on the pace and if anything he will try to take them all the way. It won’t be easy as the final furlong will probably be his demise. There are a few other horses that have some speed, so a speed duel is another issue facing this one.
(12)(-) Court Vision- Gulch – Weekend Storm- Storm Bird, Purchase price $ 800,000 (S/R) Court Vision finally makes an appearance on out ThorougbredZone Derby 12. Court Vision recording an impressive work out at Churchill Downs that many said was a very sharp looking drill. The son of Gulch ran third in the Wood memorial behind Tale ofEkati and War Pass. Court Vision could be coming into his own at the right time. If the work is an indicator of his forward development, he might have something to say. The down side is this, is he fast enough. The Remsen winner over Atoned was not a real fast race, but that was as a two year old. The Wood Memorial time was in a word, what could we say…slow. Final time in 1:52.35. He was able to pass Giant Moon to get the show spot. We think he need to take it to another level to be the Kentucky Derby winner. He is in the hands of the master Bill Mott who has be known to have them ready for big races. He is in good hands. The question is if this one is fast enough to win it.
Off the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12-
Hey Byrn looks to below in the speed and class department. War Pass has been eliminated from Kentucky Derby contention after the discovery of a broken bone in his ankle.
Notable mentions
Other possible entries are two Larry Jones trained fillys. Eight Belles and Proud Spell will be cross entered in the Oaks and Derby. The entry of either or both would knock others out who are on the earnings bubble. Rick Porter will decide after seeing where he they draw in the post position.
Wood Memorial Photo Album
ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12
Week of April 13
1) 1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. His first work since the Florida derby was this past Saturday where he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.53. All went well with the work according to reports. He is scheduled for two more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull Saturday at Gulfstream Park. There are still the lingering questions about his feet. And that will remain a concern right up until post time of the Kentucky Derby. The work was a promising sign that he is doing good. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. In his work on Saturday he did not do this, so that is a plus. He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run there best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. Winning the Derby is not a cakewalk.
2) (2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3) (9)Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4) 8) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5) (-) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby
6) (7) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. Its still in the back of there heads. Granddad on the bottom is [b]Seeking The Gold [/b]. He looks good in the distance department.
7) (-)Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
8) (3) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win, that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9) (5) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E) Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10) (11)War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) War Pass. Did we forget him him? No, we did not. The fast War Pass has in fact dropped, but the two-year-old champion has real speed. He ran a big Wood memorial before tiring late in that race. The biggest question he had before even the Tampa Bay Derby was will have the ability to get a 1 ¼? Moreover, that dogging question resurfaced in the Wood Memorial. He was unable to stay on and win at 1 1/8 so asking him to get the extra distance becomes an even bigger concern. The pace in the Derby promises to be a swift one. Those are the things against him. Leave no doubt he is a fast horse and is well seasoned. The Derby will be his fourth start of year and he could be cycling towards his best race yet. Therefore, an improvement in the Derby is possible. Pace and distance are things he will need to overcome.
11) (9) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old .Back to number 11 this week. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If this can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
12) 12)(-)Hey Byrn – Put It Back – Restraining Order – Skip Trial, Purchase Price $160,000 (S/E) Hey Byrn debuts at number 12 on ThoroughbredZones Derby 12. He finally lived up to expectations after running big earlier in the year. He put himself into the Derby picture with the victory. The graded money was what he needed and he got it with the Holy Bull win. Hey Byrn was soundly beaten in the Florida Derby by Big Brown. He also finished behind Smooth Air. What does that tells us about Big Brown? Hey Byrn will have to come back in 3 weeks and improve by a reasonable amount to be considered a factor. Hey Byrn is by the fast Put it Back. The win was at a 1 3/16 the Preakness distance. He will have to make up a tremendous of amount of ground on Big Brown if he runs another big race. Right now Big Brown is our number 1. We think that is asking a lot. We will know for sure in 3 weeks.
Off the Derby 12..
Cool Coal Man, A horse that might have not liked the poly, but we have are doubts he is fast enough, Big Truck-earnings and a poor Bluegrass knocks him off, he might have not cared for the poly either, Visionaire was way back and made a move in the Bluegrass but was never in contention, Coast Guard- He does not have the graded earnings so he cant make it anyway, Bob Black Jack could very well get back on our last ThoroughbredZone derby 12.
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2) (2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3) (9)Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4) 8) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5) (-) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby
6) (7) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. Its still in the back of there heads. Granddad on the bottom is [b]Seeking The Gold [/b]. He looks good in the distance department.
7) (-)Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
8) (3) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win, that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9) (5) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E) Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10) (11)War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) War Pass. Did we forget him him? No, we did not. The fast War Pass has in fact dropped, but the two-year-old champion has real speed. He ran a big Wood memorial before tiring late in that race. The biggest question he had before even the Tampa Bay Derby was will have the ability to get a 1 ¼? Moreover, that dogging question resurfaced in the Wood Memorial. He was unable to stay on and win at 1 1/8 so asking him to get the extra distance becomes an even bigger concern. The pace in the Derby promises to be a swift one. Those are the things against him. Leave no doubt he is a fast horse and is well seasoned. The Derby will be his fourth start of year and he could be cycling towards his best race yet. Therefore, an improvement in the Derby is possible. Pace and distance are things he will need to overcome.
11) (9) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old .Back to number 11 this week. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If this can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
12) 12)(-)Hey Byrn – Put It Back – Restraining Order – Skip Trial, Purchase Price $160,000 (S/E) Hey Byrn debuts at number 12 on ThoroughbredZones Derby 12. He finally lived up to expectations after running big earlier in the year. He put himself into the Derby picture with the victory. The graded money was what he needed and he got it with the Holy Bull win. Hey Byrn was soundly beaten in the Florida Derby by Big Brown. He also finished behind Smooth Air. What does that tells us about Big Brown? Hey Byrn will have to come back in 3 weeks and improve by a reasonable amount to be considered a factor. Hey Byrn is by the fast Put it Back. The win was at a 1 3/16 the Preakness distance. He will have to make up a tremendous of amount of ground on Big Brown if he runs another big race. Right now Big Brown is our number 1. We think that is asking a lot. We will know for sure in 3 weeks.
Off the Derby 12..
Cool Coal Man, A horse that might have not liked the poly, but we have are doubts he is fast enough, Big Truck-earnings and a poor Bluegrass knocks him off, he might have not cared for the poly either, Visionaire was way back and made a move in the Bluegrass but was never in contention, Coast Guard- He does not have the graded earnings so he cant make it anyway, Bob Black Jack could very well get back on our last ThoroughbredZone derby 12.
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ThoroughbredZones Derby 12
Week Of April 7th
1) 1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) Big Brown stays strong at the number 1 horse. He equaled the largest jump in the ThoroughbredZones derby 12 by Curlin last year who went from 12 to 2 after his blockbuster Arkansas Derby. He became the first horse to win from post number 12 at the new Gulfstream Park. The much-hyped Big Brown lived up to expectations as he buried the Florida Derby field. He was fast out of the gate and was in the lead before you blinked. He is a large long striding horse. He moves fast on his own. He was galloping and yet ripping quick fractions. It was by far the best group he had seen and he handled it with ease. Kent just let him go past the finish line gallop out. He went way past the 1 ¼ strongly. That was the most impressive part about it. There is no doubt now that the hype and confidence the Dutrow crew was yapping about is real. The victory will make him the probable favorite in the Derby. Of course, that is if he makes it. The foot issue to me is still very scary and real. Bad feet are bad news. Dutrow had $550 shoes on him yesterday. It makes me wonder how bad the feet are, and when and if a quarter crack could happen again. The win was a dominant, strong effort. The best one I have seen yet. And I do think the horse can rate. He would go into the Derby off only 3 career starts and the seasoning part could come into play, unless he is that good. Curlin was lightly races and ran well last year. And another example was Bellamy Road who ran poorly after a handful of starts. Based on talent he looked good. Big horse, big stride. The feet are the concern. And another thing one would worry about is if he can move forward. I feel he will move forward. . He did not kill himself yesterday. He is still green and a bit goofy. He is still figuring it out. The Derby is looking exciting for the first time.
2) (6) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) Colonel John moves into the number 2 spot this week after his big win. In a season that has had a couple of break through efforts, Colonel John stamped himself as a horse that could make a big impact at Louisville on May 3rd. He ran a strong race in the Santa Anita Derby. He encountered a little bit of traffic turning for home and swung wide to get to and pass a stubborn Coast Guard and Bob Black Jack. Colonel John powered through the stretch and galloped well past the mile and a quarter mark in what was a solid effort. So far Big Brown and Colonel John have shown they will have no issue going the distance. He has yet to run a dirt track, but there is nothing to indicate he would not like it, but it’s still something to consider. Colonel John finished strong has shown he can either stalk or rally. This could be Winstars best chance in recent years to win the roses. Kentucky Derby next.
3) (2) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) - Pyro drops down to number 3. He has done everything right so far as a 3 year old. Winner of the Risen Star GII and Louisiana Derby GII has made a claim to the top 3 year old in the country. Showed a bit of a new dimension by being closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby then in his other races and that is a good thing. So far, he has progressed nicely as a 3 year old. As a February foal also has an age advantage, as he is a little further along then others at this point. As the distances continue to get longer, he looks like he will not have an issue with it. Must prove he is fast enough. In addition, another plus is the fact he broke his maiden in his first race at Churchill Downs. He has certainly looked good in his last two wins, but it is adios to the Fairgrounds. Blue Grass Stakes last and final race before the trip to The Kentucky Derby.
4) (7) Cool Coal Man - Mineshaft - Coral Sea - By Rubiano, Purchase Price $200,000, May (S/R/E) The Cool Coal Man moves up after a horse he beat won the Illinoius Derby Recapturetheglory. Cool Coal Man the Fountain Of Youth GII winner is the second of 3 Nick Zitos trained horses in the ThoroughbredZone top 12. He is a late May foal and he is one of the furthest behind in the maturation process at this point, but as he gets closer to his birth day in May he could be coming into his own. He is also a winner over the Churchill Downs strip. Has raced 7 times, and that is a lot compared to others in the top 12 and is also a winner at a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream, but he will need to continue to improve, Of course the question with him as others will be is he fast enough, getting a mile and a quarter looks to be with in his grasp. He is a stalker type runner who can even run on the lead if need be. Bluegrass Next
5) (-) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E) Recapturetheglory debuts in the number 5 spot on ThoroughbredZones Derby 12. He stamped himself a ticket to the Kentucky Derby after his game front running win the Illinois Derby. Recapturetheglory if anything made himself a certain pace factor in this years Derby. His race was actually not that bad. It looked liked he would be hooked at the top of the stretch and passed by Golden Spikes, but that was not to be the case. He dug down and opened up winning easy. This is the time of the year you want to see horses heading to the Derby run big races, and this was a good win on the front end at a 1 1/8. He will no doubly be pointed to Kentucky after the win.
6) (9) Big Truck- Hook And Ladder – Just A Ginny By Go For Gin, (S) Big Truck goes up to number 6 . Big Truck pulled off the big upset outlasting the game Atoned in the Tampa Bay Derby GIII on Saturday, although the bigger story of that race was the dreadful effort put fourth by War Pass. Big Truck has put back-to-back efforts together at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing second to Fierce Wind in The Sam Davis. Big Truck is the second of two Barclay Tagg horses to be in the Derby 12, the other being Elysium Fields. Big Trucks win was a game effort refusing to let Atoned get the win. He covered the 1 1/16 in 1:44.25 over a fast strip. Big Truck will look to stretch out in his upcoming race. How far he will be willing to go is not known at this point. His sire Hook and Ladder was a fine sprinter, but his dam sire Go for Gin was a Kentucky Derby winner. Horse has made a move in the right direction. Atoned ran poorly in the Illinois Derby a horse he beat out in the Tampa Bay Derby. Others ran poorly so he moves forward
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7) (10) Visionaire - Grand Slam - Scarlet Tango - By French Deputy, Purchase Price $300,000, February (R) Visionaire moves up to number 7 this week. The Gotham winner came from way back to nail Texas Wildcatter at the wire in a long sustained drive. He was the only horse doing any real running there late. He also ran an admirable third in the Risen Star behind Pyro and Z Fortune. Trained by Michael Matz of Barbaro fame has another Derby candidate in Visionaire. His breeding sort of indicates that a 1 ¼ might not be his forte, but has so far done well winning at a mile and the mile and sixteenth Gotham with long rallies. He will have to stretch his rallying style to a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter for him to be a legitimate threat. The way he was going looked like he should be okay. As is the biggest question as with most is if he is fast enough. He is on the right track with Matz guiding the ship. Big weekend for this horse.
8) (-)Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) We had mentioned how much we liked the breeding on Tale Of Ekati in earlier rankings and the class came to the top in the Wood Memorial. He sat a solid trip in the Wood Memorial and powered by the stubborn War Pass in the final strides of the Wood Memorial. Tale Of Ekati who is out of the Sunday Silence mare Silence Beauty showed, as the distances get longer he will enjoy it. Tale of Etaki however did not break any stopwatches with the win. War Pass began so slow a bit and Tale Of Ekati gutted out the win. Nonetheless he was running and won the race and it’s on to Kentucky. We had indicated his last two races we could throw out due to excuses. Tagg kept him fit and ready to go. This horse will still have to move forward to be a factor in the Derby. And we think he will, but not sure if will be enough. We can see this one as a Belmont Stakes horse for sure. Kentucky Derby next.
9 (12) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) He is up to number 9 this week. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. He was no match for him, but kept up the best he could as the others toiled. Tomicito could have made if he ran big. He was third, but way back. . Trainer Benny Stutts Jr is optimistic about his colt. The one thing we know for sure is that Smooth Air stamped his ticket to Kentucky with the second place finish. And there is little doubt that Benny Stutts will run there
.10) (-)Bob Black Jack- Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $ 5,000 (E) The Speedy Bob Black Jack debuts at number 10 after his game second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Purchased for the bargain basement price of $5,000 he has earned that several times over. New world record holder at 6 furlongs over the jacked up Santa Anita track. He showed he might be more then a one trick sprinter. He ran a game second place getting passed in the final strides by Colonel John. The effort was enough to get him to Kentucky. He is another that has some solid speed and if anything will be a solid pace factor. Getting a 1 ¼ might be a bit of a stretch. One thing we do know is Colonel John went past him strongly. Bob Black Jack ran a very good race, another who has yet to tip toe in the dirt. A move forward from this one makes his entrance into the Derby interesting.
11 (8)War Pass-Cherokee Run - Vue - By Mr. Prospector, Purchase Price $180,000, April (E) – Drops 3 spots to number 11 this week. Ran a game second in the Wood Memorial before giving it up in the final yards. Distance concerns reared it head in the Wood. A mile and quarter looks to be to far at this point. However the race proved he is not dead just yet. Winning the derby at this point looks a bit much, but his speed is his main asset. Zito could launch a two-pronged attack with Cool Coal Man and War Pass, both of who are owned by Robert Lapenta. We are not sure if they would run War Pass with the intention of thinking they could actually win, or set it up for Cool Coal Man. Either way his entrance makes the race that more interesting
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12)(-) Coast Guard- Stormy Atlantic – Vassar – Royal Academy, Purchase Price $300,000 April (E) Coast Guard Debuts at number 12, one of the more highly priced horses on the trail this year. Led almost the entire way in the Santa Anita Derby in a strong effort. Only beaten by 2 lengths or so. Graded Earnings look to be an issue with this horse, not sure if he has enough, but based on what I saw on the track he is at least worthy of a mention here. He dug in stubbornly late and was only past by Bob Black Jack and Colonel John. He ripped off solid clicks in the effort and still had something left late. And he is another one with zero dirt experience on the resume. We do not know if will get in, but he ran a solid race. A lot better then some of the others that are no longer on the list.
Off the ThoroughbredZones Derby 12
Denis of Cork needed to prove that late kick of not show much if anything. That was a concern early on, and at this pohis would be as solid going longer and he did int we decided to take him off. Atoned ran a flat Illinois Derby as well, still bred very well El Galo Malo ran an empty Santa Anita Derby. This is the time of the year where flat efforts are not good.
Keep an eye on Cowboy Cal....Goes in the Bluegrass. if he tranfers his grass form to the poly...He could jump right into the Derby picture.
