1) Fierceness | City of Light - Nonna Bella by Stay Thirsty (3/28) (Dosage Index 5.00) Homebred 36.91, 12.59 | The morning line favorite drew the far outside post position of 17. All things considered this is not the worst place he could have drawn. He has a quick easy stride, and should get into position easily--that's if breaks well. The times he has not--it did not work out. Speed and more speed. He has looked the part. The horse to beat. Florida Derby Replay
2) Catching Freedom | Constitution - Catch My Drift by Pioneer of the Nile (3/8) (Dosage Index 5.67) $575,000 36.58, 12.05 | The late charging Louisiana Derby Derby winner goes from post 4. He should be able to tuck in and sit a good trip. Already confirmed a mile and three sixteenth has a solid late kick--should be moving well late. One that will benefit from an expected fast pace. Broke his maiden 1st out at CD. Louisiana Derby Replay
3) Sierra Leone | Gun Runner - Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon (3/31) (Dosage Index 2.00) $2,300,000 38.02, 13.02 | The late charging son of Gun Runner will look to do what he does best--close. Not the most ideal spot, and will have to navigate kick back, but has handled in the past, but this is an entirely new level of it. Muscular colt. Horse has shown he likes an off track. Bluegrass Stakes Replay
4) Resilience | Into Mischief - Meadowsweet by Smart Strike (3/24) (Dosage Index 3.50) Homebred 37.81, 12.93 | The Wood Winner will have to make the best of his far outside post. He has tactical speed and should never be too far off the pace. Depending on how fast they go, that could be a bad thing, or a good thing. He looks to be coming into this race fit. Wood Memorial Replay
5) Stronghold | Ghostzapper - Spectator by Jimmy Creed (1/24) (Dosage Index 3.00) Homebred 38.69, 13.10 | The Santa Anita Derby did not get the best draw, and it looks like he will have to be used a little just to get position into the clubhouse turn. He's the lone California dirt entry in this year's Derby. There would have been others--but Baffert is not part of this year's field. Stronghold battled with Imagination to win the Santa Anita Derby Replay
6) Honor Marie | Honor Code - Dame Marie by Smart Strike (5/4) (Dosage Index 3.24) $40,000 37.01, 12.17 | The $40,000 son of Honor Code is one of this year's bargain horses. He's winless in 2024, but cycling up to his 3rd start since November. He likes Churchill Downs, and at a price could fill out tickets. He's also a May foal and little behind others in the progression. In fact Saturday will be his foal date. Offers good value underneath. Louisiana Derby Replay
7) Just a Touch | Justify - Touching by Tapit (5/5) (Dosage Index 3.57) $300,000 39.31, 13.71 | The lightly raced Brad Cox colt has run well in all three of his career starts, including a 2nd place finish to the highly regarded Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. This horse has tactical speed, and another move forward is possibility. Some horses leading up the Derby have run their best races, while others have not. Just a Touch is one of those who has room for improvement. Bluegrass Stakes Replay
8) Society Man | Good Magic - You Cheated by Colonel John (4/19) (Dosage Index 3.80) $85,000 38.13, 12.95 | The Wood Memorial runner up will need to carve out a path from post 20, but his running style does not dictate he must get up into the thick of it right away. His stablemate Dornoch will break from post position 1 and the race looks to have a pretty good amount of early zip. If things go well, and he brings his A game--a late kick from him is to be expected. Offers good value underneath. Wood Memorial Replay
9) Forever Young (Jpn) | Real Steel (Jpn) - Forever Darling by Congrats(2/24) (Dosage Index 3.00) ***$686,682 *36.63, *12.70 | The undefeated Japanese horse will try to do something that's never been done before--win the Derby. There are still questions surrounding him, and the lack of success Japan has had trying to win the American Classic. It's hard to ignore his resume, and against large fields. Not using him could be an error. UAE Derby Replay
10) Endlessly | Oscar Performance - Dream Fuhrever by Langfuhr (3/25) (Dosage Index 2.60) Homebred 36.49, 12.22 | He was out, now he's in. Endlessly has done nothing wrong on the turf and poly tracks. He will now try to transfer that form over to Churchill Downs main dirt track. There is not a tremendous amount of dirt breeding, but there is no denying he has a solid late kick, and sometimes good ones can just flat out run on anything. I expect him to take to the dirt and make a late run at a price. Offers good value underneath. Jeff Ruby Steaks Race Replay
11) Domestic Product | Practical Joke - Goods and Services by Paynter (2/22) (Dosage Index 3.00) Homebred 35.01, 11.77 | The Tampa Derby winner had a slow pace to cut into before eventually winning it. The homebred trained by Chad Brown should get plenty more pace this time around, and if he does, he could make his presence known in the late stages of this affair. He will offer value, and a late kick that would help any winning wager. Offers good value underneath. Tampa Bay Derby Replay
12) Track Phantom | Quality Road - Miss Sunset by Into Mischief (2/17) (Dosage Index 2.20) $500,000 37.91, 12.94 | The Asmussen trainee will wear blinkers for the 1st time in the Derby. He has a front running style which will probably be employed again. He's been in against the top colts of his class, and has held his own against them. He's had 7 career starts, which is a lot in today's standard for a Derby contender. Louisiana Derby Replay
Clicking the name of the horse will bring you to the Pedigree Thoroughbred Database--Name of horse, sire, dam, damsire, foal date, dosage index and original purchase price if available. And final 3/8ths and 1/8th time.
Key *** Yen converted to American dollars. I could be wrong, but the price looks nice.
Encino was scratched on April 30,2024. The first horse on the Also Eligible list Epic Ride drew in. And the last horse that could get in is Mugatu.
