2025 Kentucky Top 12
Name, sire, dam, damsire, date of birth, Dosage Index, the original purchase price if available, and final splits from previous prep race.
Link in name goes to one of their key races.
1) Journalism | Curlin–Mopotism by Uncle Mo (2/6) (DI 3.57) $825,000 37.4, 12.3 The morning line favorite for this year's Kentucky Derby, and a legitimate one at that. He has looked fabulous in the AM, and has a definite track presence. A total pro. He has the 'it' factor. Three races at two, and cycling to his third start of the year in the Derby. Another move forward off his excellent Santa Derby is expected. He beat smaller fields in California, but he's one the older colts in the race. Breaks from a good post where Rispoli will still have to work out a trip before making his move. One concern could be--being to close to a possible hot pace. The one to beat.
2) Burnham Square | Liam’s Map – Linda by Scat Daddy (4/9) (DI 7.80) Homebred 38.8, 12.9 Entering the Derby off his wide winning trip in the Blue Grass. He had to run down a loose East Avenue--not the easiest thing to do, but his race two back in the Holy Bull was one the more impressive prep wins of the season. Broke last, and was wide rallying from the back to beat the eventual Florida Derby winner Tappan Street. I think he looks good on the track--and wants to do something. He should get a good clip to run at. Has run well at CD.
3) Sovereignty | Into Mischief – Crowned by Bernardini (2/22) (DI 4.33) Homebred 37.1, 12.4 Godolphin has two entered, and I like this one more. He has looked really good--from what I've seen of him on the track. The Sheikh has been trying to win this for awhile--and this looks like his best shot yet. He sports a huge win at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense last year. In style. The extra distance will only help him, and making his third start into his current form cycle. He should get a good pace to run into.
4) Final Gambit | Not This Time–Pachinko by Tapit (2/21) (DI 2.20) Homebred 35.9, 11.9 Final Gambit will make his first career start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby. A Juddmonte homebred coming off an impressive sweeping move to win the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. It was a sharp win, and was not life or death to get it done. Breeding suggest dirt should not be an issue. He should be a decent price--and should make his presence known in the final stages of the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in his first career try on dirt--after winning the same race.
5) Luxor Café | American Pharoah–Mary’s Follies by More Than Ready (2/26) (DI 5.00) He stormed home to win the Fukuryu last prep race in Japan to win by 5. It was a visually impressive effort. He looked like he could go around again. Distance should not be a concern--and can't disregard that type of an effort. Japan once cold sending horsed have turned quite hot. Sired by a Triple Crown winner, and has been battle-tested multiple times in large fields in Japan. He moves up on an off track. I expect a late run, but also first time state side to race. But race in the other direction.
6) Citizen Bull | Into Mischief–No Joke by Distorted Humor (4/28) (DI 9.00) $675,000 40.1, 14.2 The lone Bob Baffert runner in the Derby after the scratch of Rodriguez. The two-year-old champion seems to be flying under the radar. His last race in the Santa Anita Derby was his 2nd start of the year--and he did not run well. If one is willing to put a line through the race--I did--he looks dangerous on paper. Baffert knows a thing or two about the Derby. The post is not ideal--but if he can get to the lead--he could be out there for a bit. Can't totally dismiss.
7) East Avenue | Medaglia d'Oro–Dance Music by Ghostzapper (2/4) (DI 3.08) Homebred 39.4, 13.40 He's actually the oldest horse in the race. There are some things to like with this guy. He will be making his third start into his form cycle and has looked great in the morning. Nice bottom. Has two bad running lines. And back in Kentucky where his run his best races--although at Keeneland--I expect him to move up on a wet track. Sleeper.
8) Baeza | McKinzie–Puca by Big Brown (5/13) (DI 2.00) $1,200,000 38.1, 12.6 Baeza just made into the field--and he's at number 7 based off his game effort against Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. He will break on the far outside, and will have to work out a trip from way out there. He's been in smaller fields, and I think it will impact him more than Journalism. He likes to be forwardly placed, but Prat will have to work out a trip. He's the youngest horse in the field. Tough call to use--but underneath is a possibility. His dam Puca produced Mage and Dornoch.
9) Admire Daytona (Jpn) | Drefong–Ice Pastel by Shackleford (3/17) (DI 1.86) He was game as could be digging in to comeback and win the UAE Derby. he did have the most perfect trip along the inside. He seems to be the type of a horse that liked to run, on, or near the lead--which might not be work to his benefit in a race that looks like a fast pace should develop. Beaten by Luxor Cafe four back by a nose. He's is a wild card. Hard to get a gauge on him, but if one likes Luxor Cafe, this one can be considered. it's possible a time might come turning for home--and he will have the lead. Again--battle-tested against large fields, and offers value underneath.
10) Chunk of Gold | Preservationist–Play for Gold by Cairo Prince (5/11) (DI 3.57) $2,500 38.8, 13.4 Easily the bargain deal of this yea's Kentucky Derby. Maybe ever. He was only $2,500 purchase and has earned north of $340,000. He also a May 11th foal making him the second youngest horse in the field behind Admire Daytona (Jpn) by two days. He would have to make a significant step forward here off his Louisiana Derby.
11) Publisher | American Pharoah–Indian Pride by Proud Citizen (2/6) (DI 4.33) $600,000 38.6, 13.3 The workmate of Tiztastic, and has looked good in the morning. Publisher is a 0/7 maiden with earnings of over $400,000, He has a late kick which should aid his cause with a moderate to fast pace expected. Ran behind Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. He would have to make a significant jump up to be a factor.
12) Tiztastic | Tiz the Law– Keesha by Tapit (4/30) (DI 4.00) $335,000 38.0, 13.2 A striking looking son of Tiz the Law. He won the Louisiana Derby with an off the pace move. Ran a distant second behind Sovereignty in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs at two. He's going to have to improve off that race to get a part of the Derby--but could be one of the price horses moving well late.
