Kentucky Derby Picks Since 1998
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 12
2016 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 is back for the 10th year. (Lite Version) The same format as in previous years. Name, sire, dam, damsire, date of birth, and the original purchase price if available. More Kentucky Derby links are available at the bottom of this post. This year morning line odds added at end.
2) Nyquist – Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry (Mar 10) $180,000 3/1 (Kentucky Derby Winner)
3) Creator – Tapit – Morena (Per) by Privately Held (Mar 30) $440, 000 10/1 (Belmont Stakes Winner)
4) Exaggerator – Curlin – Dawn Ride by Vindication (Feb 2) $110,000 8/1 (Preakness Stakes Winner)
5) Gun Runner – Candy Ride Quiet – Giant by Giants Causeway (Mar 8) 10/1 (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner 2017)
6) Mo Tom – Uncle Mo – Caroni by Rubiano (May 6) $150,000 20/1
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
May 5, 2016
1) Danzing Candy – Twirling Candy – Talkin And Singing by Song And A Prayer (Apr 6) Homebred 15/1 (San Carlos Stakes Winner 2017)2) Nyquist – Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry (Mar 10) $180,000 3/1 (Kentucky Derby Winner)
3) Creator – Tapit – Morena (Per) by Privately Held (Mar 30) $440, 000 10/1 (Belmont Stakes Winner)
4) Exaggerator – Curlin – Dawn Ride by Vindication (Feb 2) $110,000 8/1 (Preakness Stakes Winner)
5) Gun Runner – Candy Ride Quiet – Giant by Giants Causeway (Mar 8) 10/1 (Breeders' Cup Classic Winner 2017)
6) Mo Tom – Uncle Mo – Caroni by Rubiano (May 6) $150,000 20/1
7) Outwork – Uncle Mo – Nanna Mia by Empire Make (Mar 8) Homebred 15/1
8) Mor Spirit – Eskendereya – I’m A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union (Apr 1) $650,000 12/1
9) Suddenbreakingnews – Mineshaft – Uchitel by Afleet Alex (May 2) $72,000 20/1
10) Whitmore – Pleasantly Perfect – Melody’s Spirit by Scat Daddy (Jan 1) 20/1 (Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner 2020)
11) Majesto – Tiznow – Unacloud by Uanccounted For (Apr 28) $300,000 30/1
8) Mor Spirit – Eskendereya – I’m A Dixie Girl by Dixie Union (Apr 1) $650,000 12/1
9) Suddenbreakingnews – Mineshaft – Uchitel by Afleet Alex (May 2) $72,000 20/1
10) Whitmore – Pleasantly Perfect – Melody’s Spirit by Scat Daddy (Jan 1) 20/1 (Breeders' Cup Sprint Winner 2020)
11) Majesto – Tiznow – Unacloud by Uanccounted For (Apr 28) $300,000 30/1
12) Brody’s Cause – Giant’s Causeway – Sweet Breanna by Sahm (Mar 17) $350,000 12/1
Rest of the Kentucky Derby Field– Shagaf, My Man Sam, Mohaymen, Destin, Tom’s Ready, Trojan Nation, Lani, Oscar Nominated
Kentucky Derby 2015 Top 12
2015 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 is back! Same format as in previous years. Name, sire, dam, damsire, date of birth, and the original purchase price if available. A tie at the top! American Pharoah and Dortmund. Thats a first. More Kentucky Derby links are available at the bottom of this post.
3) International Star - Fusaichi Pegasus Parlez by French Deputy (Mar 3) $85,000 The late rallying son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus in number 3 on the list. International Star is a perfect 3 for 3 so far in 2015. He swept the Fair Grounds Triple Crown Prep races closing each time in the process. He won races from the rail, to post 9 in large fields each time. He is a battle tested, experienced horse who is used to big fields. He also sports six races as a 2-year-old. Scratched On Saturday Morning
10) El Kabeir - Scat Daddy Great Venue by Unbridleds Song (Mar 18)$250,000 El Kabeir has been a solid performer in 2015. He was the winner of the Jerome and Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. He was third to Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Scratched
Keen Ice 3rd in Risen Star to International Star
Bolo 36 behind Dortmund Santa Anita Derby and 32 in San Felipe
Tencendur 2nd to Frosted in Wood Memorial
Frammento 47 behind Carpe Diem in Blue Grass and 34 to Upstart in Fountain Youth
Kentucky Derby 141 Contenders Dosage And Other Useful LInks
Kentucky Derby Top 12 2013
Kentucky Derby Top 12 2012
Kentucky Derby Top 12 2011
A Kentucky Derby 141 Close Up & Preview Coming
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
April 30, 2015
1) Dortmund - Big Brown Our Josephina by Tale of the Cat (Feb 12) $90,000 Bob Baffert has two formidable thoroughbreds in this years Kentucky Derby. The imposing son of Big Brown is a perfect 6 for 6 in his career. He lost a shoe in the Santa Anita Derby, but still won drawing away. He ran an impressive race, battling back to beat Firing Line in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He certainly looks the part.
1) American Pharoah - Pioneer of the Nile Parlez by Yankee Gentleman (Feb 2) (Homebred Buy Back $300,000) The morning line favorite of the race will be American Pharoah who was nothing short of sensational in the Arkansas Derby. It was the most impressive prep race of the year. He won in a hand ride with out ever being asked for much. Before that he was an easy winner of the Rebel Stakes in the slop. A fast horse with different gears. Bob Baffert called him the best horse that hes ever trained. Thats a bold statement. He has an effortless stride.
2) Firing Line - Line of David Sister Girl Blues by Hold for Gold (Jan 19) $150,000 Firing Line is a fast son of first crop sire Line of David. He was the blowout winner of the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths with ease. He was just beaten by Dortmund in his race before. Firing Line has two wins and three places in fiver career starts.
4) Carpe Diem - Giants Causeway Rebridled Dreams by Unbridleds Song ( Feb 29) $550,000 Carpe Diem has only run one bad race in his five career starts and that was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. In his other races he was an easy drawing away winner. He won the Bluegrass Stakes by three measured lengths over Danzig Moon.
5) Frosted - Tapit Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister (Apr 18) Homebred Frosted is coming off winning the Wood Memorial over Trecendur at Aqueduct. He was not at his best at Gulfstream Park earlier in the spring. He has since improved. He will have to improve even more in the Derby and thats a distinct possibility. Frosted
6) Upstart - Flatter Party Silks by Unbridleds Song (Apr 13) $130,000 New York Bred Upstart has been as consistent as they come. The sharp looking colt has three wins and three places in seven career starts. It was a tough luck disqualification in the Fountain of Youth that took a two length win away over Itsaknockout. He came back to run a solid race right behind Materiality in the Florida Derby. Upstart has a good foundation.
7) Materiality - Afleet Alex Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr (Apr 9) $260,000 The lightly raced and undefeated colt was a gate-to-wire winner in the Florida Derby over Upstart. It was an impressive win in only his third career start. The sharp looking son of Afleet Alex will have to run that same race in the Kentucky Derby.
8) Mubtaahij (Ire) - Dubawi (Ire) Pennegale (Ire) by Pennekamp (Apr 28) $600,000 The stately looking son of Dubawi (Ire) was an impressive winner in the UAE Derby. He sat a perfect trip and showed a big kick in the stretch as he ran away from the rest of the field. He is a good looking colt. He has beaten the most horses in his last five races. He has been in big fields.
9) Far Right - Notional Zindi by Vindication (Mar 4) $2,500 Far Right was a distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby. Far Right is the 2015 value horse of the Kentucky Derby. He was only a $2,500 original purchase. He has gone to earn over $600,000 on the track. He is a good looking son of first crop sire Notional. Far Right was the late rallying winner of the Smarty Jones And Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
11) War Story - Northern Afleet Belle Watling by Pulpit (Mar 25) $90,000 War Story was chasing International Star all spring at the Fairgrounds. But that may have not been a bad thing. He ran good races. He ran second 34 1/2 behind him in the Louisiana Derby. Ran second to him in the Lecomte and Risen Star in big fields. He is a horse that that has room for improvement.
12) Itsaknockout - Lemon Drop Kid Stormy B by Cherokee Run (Mar 16) $350,000 A son of Lemon Drop Kid. And he looks like his dad. He is coming into the Kentucky Derby off a poor effort in the Florida Derby. This is never a positive. He was a non-factor finishing in fourth place 21 lengths behind Materiality. The Derby will only be his fourth career start. But he has some upside. He still has room for improvement off the Florida races.
Others Kentucky Derby Horses
Danzig Moon (Can) 2nd by 3 lengths to Carpe Diem in Blue GrassKeen Ice 3rd in Risen Star to International Star
Bolo 36 behind Dortmund Santa Anita Derby and 32 in San Felipe
Tencendur 2nd to Frosted in Wood Memorial
Mr. Z Finished 58 behind American Pharoah in Arkansas Derby
Ocho Ocho Ocho 35 behind Carpe Diem in Blue GrassFrammento 47 behind Carpe Diem in Blue Grass and 34 to Upstart in Fountain Youth
Additional Kentucky Derby Links
Kentucky Derby 141 Horse Profiles & ImagesKentucky Derby 141 Contenders Dosage And Other Useful LInks
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Kentucky Derby Top 12 2014Kentucky Derby Top 12 2013
Kentucky Derby Top 12 2012
Kentucky Derby Top 12 2011
Kentucky Derby 2012 Top 12
2012 ThoroughbredZone's Final Kentucky 12
5/1/12
Adjustments and changes will be made in the coming days as some horses may drop out. Mark Valeski will not run. The door has opened for Optimizer. My Adonis is now next in line if someone else drops out. Another look at the Kentucky Derby field will come Friday—Preview & Pick. We will know post positions and if the weather will be a factor in Kentucky Derby 138.
(1)(1) Union Rags – Dixie Union – Tempo by Gone West (May) $145,000 – Bought back for $390,000 He started the year on top and he will end the year on top. Union Rags will go into the Kentucky Derby ready to go. He will vie for favoritism with Bodemeister. Union Rags will enter the Kentucky Derby coming off a 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby GI in which he did not have the best of trips, but was able to swing out and make a rally on a speed favoring track. The big, strong son of Dixie Union will go into the Derby off a 5 week break. Michael Matz is taking the same route he took with Barbaro in winning the 2006 Derby. So far everything has worked out well. He had a very strong work on Saturday which was the talk of the backside. He turns 3-years-old on Thursday. He is bigger and has matured wonderfully. Some say distance is a concern, but he is built solidly and galloped out past both Hansen and Take Charge Indy. Union Rags has shown he likes the Churchill Downs surface. He will get his chance to strut his stuff and blossom into a champion. Union Rags is the legitimate #1 this year.
(2)(2) Hansen – Tapit – Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat (Apr) Homebred – The nearly white galloping ghost will finish where he started at #2. The leading 2011 juvenile colt is coming off a gutsy 2nd place finish in the Bluegrass Stakes GI. I mentioned that in my previous list of how that race went down. I was tempted to drop Hansen down the list, but stuck with him. There is no doubt Hansen is a fighter with plenty of heart. He showed tremendous heart in fighting to the wire in the Bluegrass Stakes GI to hold 2nd place. The question is if he will be able to get the mile and a quarter distance in the Kentucky Derby. He did show he could rate a bit too easily win the Gotham Stakes GIII. An outside post would be an advantage for him. There is going to be plenty off speed in this race and depending on where he breaks from, he could have a significant impact. He will have to avoid getting into a speed duel, but he might not have a choice in the matter if he is not relaxed. He is happy and content going in. His owner Dr. Hansen remains supremely confident in his colt. He has been a great story for racing and a win would be a fairytale ending.
(3)(-)Bodemeister Empire Maker Untouched by Storm Cat (Apr) $260,000 Big bad Bodemeister debuts in the #3 spot in the final Derby list. Bob Baffert once again will enter the Kentucky Derby locked and loaded. He turned in the most impressive prep race of the year by any 3-year-old in crushing his foes in the Arkansas Derby GI by 9 1/2 lengths. He raced right to the front and never looked back. He received a huge speed figure in winning. Bodemeister has shown he has a high cruising speed. The only negative that Bodemeister may have is the fact he has never had a race as a 2-year-old. No horse since 1882 (Apollo) has won the Kentucky Derby GI without a race at two, but that does not mean he cant win. The other concern is how will he run coming off such a huge effort? He did win easy, but was urged on by Mike Smith when asked for a little more. He turned in a brilliant work on Saturday, wowing the clockers. With that said, Bodemeister looks to be coming into this ready to fire his best shot. Bodemeister is a speed horse who runs near the front. He goes and thats it. One issue he will have to face is the fact there will be other speed in the race. Can he overcome the pressure and expected hot pace? He will also be asked to win at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter after just coming off a career best race four weeks ago. Sheer talent could trump all.
(4)(4) Take Charge Indy – A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady by Dehere (Mar) $80,000 – The 4th place finisher in last years Breeders Cup juvenile is #4 here. He won the Florida Derby GI with a front running gambit under the guidance of Calvin Borel. He also defeated Union Rags in the process. The son of the legendary A.P. Indy has had 6 weeks to get ready for this. He has 4 races under his best as a 2-year-old giving him a solid foundation. He turned in a powerful work in Florida last week that left many observers wowing. Take Charge Indy is coming into this race sitting on a sharp effort. No doubt his breeding gets the mile and a quarter. He will need to avoid getting caught up in any speed duel that may develop. He has shown he can sit off the pace if need be, but that was without blinkers on. Take Charge Indy will need to take another step forward in order to be a player. He looks like he could very well be ready to take that step.
(5)(3) Creative Cause – Giant’s Causeway – Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer (Apr) $135,000 – Are we noticing something here? Creative Cause will check in at the #5 in my final list. The top five finishers from last year Breeders Cup Juvenile will be making starts in the Kentucky Derby. This group so far has proven resilient and healthy. Creative Cause has been as consistent as any horse in the field. He has run well in everyone of his races. He is a stalker with tactical speed. He has shown he likes the CD surface and a repeat effort of that race makes him threat in the stretch. He also defeated Bodemeister in the San Felipe GII back in March. He definitely stacks up well in the class department. His pedigree indicates the mile and a quarter is well within his range.
(6)(5) Gemologist – Tiznow – Crystal Shard by Mr. Prospector (Jan) $310,000 – The undefeated Gemologist closes out at #6. The WinStar farms son of Tiznow showed tremendous courage in winning the Wood Memorial GI, turning back the hard charging Alpha to win it. He dug in and galloped out nicely after the race indicating that the mile and a quarter should be within his range. The final time of the Wood Memorial was a bit slow, but track observers felt the track was deeper than normal. The biggest positives with Gemologist is the fact he has won two races at Churchill Downs already. Always a big plus when a horse has been successful over a particular racing surface. He will easily face the best group of horses he has ever been in with before, but the same can be said for many others. Once again Gemologist is a horse who will likely run up near the pace. He is another horse that could be involved in a wicked speed duel that could compromise his chances. Pace makes the race and a lot could hinge on that as to whether he will be there late.
(7)(-)Dullahan - Even the Score Mining My Own by Smart Strike (Feb) $250,000 Dullahan was an impressive winner in taking the Bluegrass Stakes GI a few weeks ago with an explosive late kick to run down a game Hansen in deep stretch. Visually its the type of a move you like to see from a horse heading into the Kentucky Derby. Dullahan is yet another horse coming into the Kentucky Derby who ran in the 2011 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He did not disgrace himself in finishing in 4th place. He was not going backwards late, although he was 6 lengths behind. The jury is still out however as to whether Dullahan is good enough on dirt as he is on synthetic and turf surfaces. The Kentucky Derby will be his fourth career start on dirt. His first two career races were at Churchill Downs where he finished 3rd and 5th place several lengths behind. That was a long time ago. He certainly has a style of running that should have him coming late if he gets over the surface. He is a strong closer and should get a good set up for his late power kick. If he duplicates his Bluegrass look out. Question is, is if he is good enough on dirt? Dullahan is a half brother to Mine That Bird—same dam Mining My Own. If he wins the Derby she would be the only dam in history to drop two Kentucky Derby winners.
(8)(6) Alpha – Bernardini – Munnaya by Nijinksy (Mar) – Alpha drops down to # 8. Alpha was a hard charging 2nd place to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial GI in a race where he looked like he was poised to surge by Gemologist, but that was not the case. Since his 2nd place finish he has been dealing with a foot infection from scratches and nicks he sustained in the Wood Memorial GI. There was continuing speculation that he might not be entered, but after turning in a good workout connections have seen fit to give him the green light. Sheikh Mohammed of the international power house Godolphin Stables on several occasions has tried to win the Kentucky Derby while preparing his horses in Dubai. This year he kept Alpha in the United States in an attempt to hopefully change his luck. Alpha has tactical speed and can sit off the pace, something that could very well benefit him this year.
(9)(7)Went The Day Well – Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie’s Day (Can) by Tiznow (Mar) – Last years Kentucky Derby heroes are back this year with Went The Day Well, who is literally following the same footsteps of Animal Kingdom last year. Went The Day Well will come into the Kentucky Derby off a 6 week break. Went The Day Well has shown he can run well on dirt. He broke his maiden on dirt down at Gulfstream Park back in early March. He turned in a very good work last week. It was so good trainer Graham Motion indicated it might have been his best work ever. Blinkers were added for that work. John Velasquez is back again to try to duplicate the Animal Kingdom Derby win. Went the Day Well will run with blinkers on it the Kentucky Derby so he does not lose focus. It will come down as to whether he is good enough to win it.
(10)(3) I’ll Have Another – Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal by Arch (Apr) ($11,000) – Ill Have Another drops down to the #10 through no real fault of his own. The bargain buy of this years Kentucky Derby crop has already earned $634,000 after being purchased for the bargain basement price of $11,000. Ill Have Another will be making his 6th career start in this years Kentucky Derby. He has had really only one bad race in his careera 6th place finish over a sloppy Saratoga surface in the Hopeful GI. Ill Have Another has knocked heads with Creative Cause all spring. He has a pedigree that says a mile and a quarter is within his range. He has tactical speed, but anything too close to the front runners, if they are going too fast, could be a big negative. I find him to be one of the more interesting horses in the race. I dont really know what to expect.
(11)(-) Daddy Nose Best Scat Daddy Follow Your Bliss by Thunder Gulch (Mar) $35,000 - Daddy Nose Best debuts in the #11 spot for the final Kentucky Derby list of 2012. Daddy Nose Best turned in one of the better prep race wins of the year, but many have over looked the Sunland Derby GIII. He broke behind the field, but quickly engaged a fast pace. He tracked that quick pace and dug in to surge by Isnt he Clever for the win. The race gives a good indication he will be one of the horses who will find his best stride late in the race. Daddy Nose Best might have the best foundation in the race. He has 8 starts as a 2-year-old primarily on turf. Daddy Nose Best has had ample time to recover from his Sunland Derby GIII win. He will be coming in off a 6 week layoff. He should be fit and ready for a solid effort. Steve Asmussen trains Daddy Nose Best. Steve Asmussen will also saddle Sabercat (Delta Jackpot GIII Winner) in the Derby. Daddy Nose Best dam sire is Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. He will be a decent price with a chance to get in there.
(12)(10)El Padrino – Pulpit – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway (Jan) $210,000 – The forgotten horse in this years Kentucky Derby. El Padrino will check in at the #12 spot in the finale. El Padrino finished in 4th place in the Florida Derby GI and has fell out of favor with some, but jockey Javier Castellano seemed more interested in keeping Union Rags pinned inside along the rail. El Padrino is the second of a pair of Todd Pletcher trainees that will run in the Kentucky Derby this year. El Padrino has run well in all 6 of his career races. El Padrino has a stalking style of running that will benefit him well with a solid trip. He will no doubt be overlooked by many and will be the longer priced horse of the two Todd Pletcher trainees. He should be a bit further off the pace then some of the others. Is he good enough, is the question?
The Long Shots
Prospective will be coming into the race off a so-so effort in the Bluegrass. He is rounding into form and that race served as a good tighter for the Kentucky Derby. He has looked good in the mornings at Churchill Downs. He could be sitting on a big race. He has a solid foundation and an edge on some of the others in the maturation department. He could be dangerous. Rousing Sermon will go off a huge price in this years Kentucky Derby. The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee had a big 2-year-old campaign, but has not duplicated that success as a 3-year-old. He is a closer whos dam sire Awesome Again won the Breeders Cup Classic. The faster they go up front the better for him. He has a solid foundation. Done Talking will go off at a big price. The winner of the Illinois Derby GIII back on April 7th. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year. In the Illinois Derby GIII he weaved through traffic, coming from far out of it to earn the win. He has shown he can handle traffic. He will be far back again in the Derby. He is a grinder who will appreciate the longer distance. He will do his best running late. Optimizer only has one win under his belt, but the D. Wayne Lukas colt ran his best race in the Rebel GII where he sloed with a rush to finish 2nd. He is bred for the trip. He would need to move forward off his poor Arkansas Derby GII effort. Laision is the sleeper of sleepers. Has done little as a 3-year-old. Bob Baffert also has Bodemeister in here. Laision has gotten over the track better at Churchill Downs. He will be well off the pace and try to make a late bid. The faster they go up front the better off for his style. Laision will be way under the radar. Daddy Long Legs The UAE Derby winner has run the longest prep race. He also ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile finishing far behind in his first career start on dirt. What to expect here is a bit of a mystery. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot GIII last year. Trained by Steve Asmussen, who will also saddle Daddy Nose Best. Sabercat could be forwardly placed in the early stages of the race
Kentucky Derby 2013 Top 12
2013 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 is finally here. Same format as in previous years. Name, sire, dam, dam sire, date of birth, and the original first time purchase price if available. A tie for fourth place and twelfth place on this list. More Kentucky Derby links are available at the bottom of this post.
A Kentucky Derby 139 Close Up & Preview Coming
2013 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
April 30, 2013
1) Orb – Malibu Moon – Lady Liberty by Unbridled (Feb 24) Homebred – Orb started at #2 this year, but with his big win over Itsmyluckyday–who was #1 at the time on my first list will end up in the top spot this year. The son ofMalibu Moon ran down Violence in the Fountain of Youth-Replay in a race with very fast fractions. In the Florida Derby-Replay he ran downItsmyluckyday to win with authority in a race with turtle like fractions. Orb has looked very sharp in the mornings at Churchill Downs since shipping up from Payson Park. Orb has a solid 2-year-old foundation. He will be making his fourth start into his current form cycle. Distance is no issue with Orb. He means business when he digs in.
2) Revolutionary - War Pass – Runup The Colors by A.P. Indy (Feb 20) $80,000 – Revolutionary is coming into the Kentucky Derby looking good. The Kentucky Derby will be his second start into his form cycle. Revolutionary is a battle tested colt, who showed tremendous determination in winning the Withers-Replay at Aqueduct, after trailing the field. He showed that same determination in winning the Louisiana Derby-Replayover Mylute in a tight finish. Departing who finished third, came back to easily win the Illinois Derby. Revolutionary’s gallop outs have been very strong. He easily went on after the finish line in the Louisiana Derby. He has looked superb in the mornings. If he makes another move forward in the Kentucky Derby, he is a legitimate threat for the win.
3) Java’s War - War Pass – Java (GB) by Rainbow Quest (May 4) Homebred – After watching the replay of the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay several times, it’s still hard to believe Java’s War was able to get up and win. A very poor start at the gate, and went 7-wide in a last to first rally that will live on in the annals of racing history. Java’s War was installed at the #5 spot on my initial Kentucky Derby list, after running a strong second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby-Replay. Bred to run all day on the bottom, there is little doubt that the distance will not be an issue. There are still some concerns. Should be running well late. On a side note–Saturday will also be Java’s War Birthday.
4) Itsmyluckyday - Lawyer Ron – Viva La Slew by Doneraile Court (Mar 18) $47,000 – Itsmyluckyday kicked the year off at #1 on my first Kentucky Derby list. Itsmyluckyday has had the most starts of any horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby with ten, including seven starts a 2-year-old. No doubt the foundation is there. The big, strapping son of Lawyer Ron has put together some huge races this year so far. He broke a track record in winning the Holy Bull-Replay in January at Gulfstream Park. In his last he was no match for Orb in the Florida Derby-Replay, but in a race where he did not absolutely have to win, it’s a race to not get overly worried with. That was his first race back off a layoff. He has the size, speed and experience to be a player. The distance could be a fly in the ointment.
4) Goldencents – Into Mischief - Golden Works by Banker’s Gold(Mar 7) $5,500 – Goldencents is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain. An original $5,500 purchase, that was later resold for $62,000. Goldencents has six career starts, and has yet to run a poor race. It has not been the best year for California horses on the Derby Trail, but Goldencents has made up for it.Goldencents ran a big speed figure in the Santa Anita Derby-Replay. He ran right up on a quick pace, before putting away Flashback in the stretch, who came back to Goldencents a bit at the wire. Goldencents will be making his third start into his current form cycle in the Kentucky Derby. The biggest question is whether he will move forward, or backwards off big Santa Anita Derby win.
5) Verrazano – More Than Ready – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway (Jan 27) $250,000 – The undefeated son of More Than Ready is the likely post-time favorite when the gates open on Saturday. The lightly raced colt is coming off a win in the Wood Memorial-Replay, that was an oddly run race after one of the potential pace setters–Freedom Child never made it to the lead. The pace was slow, but Verrazano did what he needed to do, and came home quickly to beat Vyjack, and fend off Normandy Invasion. Verrazanois a good looking colt. He faces some questions, but the two biggest ones are–will he take another step forward in his progression as a 3-year-old on Saturday and is the distance too much to over come? Unraced at two. On a side note–Verrazano is actually the oldest horse in the field, being a January 27 foal.
6) Normandy Invasion – Tapit- Boston Lady by Boston Harbor (May 2) $145,000 – The late running son of Tapit almost got Verrazano in the final stages of the Wood Memorial-Replay, but ran out of running room. The son ofTapit has looked good in his AM drills at Churchill Downs. Normandy Invasion is considered a stone closer by many, but I expect he will not be as far behind as some may think watching some of his earlier career races. He looked very sharp in the post-parade on Wood Memorial Day. Normandy Invasiongalloped out well past Verrazano and Vyjack.
7) Overanalyze - Dixie Union – Unacloud by Unaccounted For (April 30) $380,000 – Overanalyze might be one of this years most underrated horse in the Kentucky Derby. Speed figure folks were not all that impressed with his Arkansas Derby-Replay win, but it was professional and convincing. He was an isolated winner and went out on his own alone. Overanalyze has a nice resume that includes two Grade II wins as well as his Grade I Arkansas Derby win. He seems to be flying under the radar, and of Todd Pletcher’s group of horses, this guy looks like the sneakiest one. Ran third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois back in October.
8) Vyjack - Into Mischief – Life Happened by Stravinsky (Feb 11) $600,000 – Vyjack is a big and strong son of Into Mischief. He ran an admirable third in the Wood Memorial-Replay behind Verraza
9) Black Onyx - Rock Hard Ten – Kalahari Cat by Cape Town (April 15) $125,000 – Kelly Breen and Joe Bravo will be in town to try to win the Kentucky Derby with this handsome and imposing looking son of Rock Hard Ten. Black Onyx is considered a synthetic/turf horse only, but that is not the case. Even though he ran a poor race on dirt at Gulfstream Park on January 1, he has had success on dirt. He won over Aqueduct’s main track in an off the turf race last November. Black Onyx stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by winning the Spiral Stakes-Replay at Turfway Park. He kept Uncaptured at bay, who could not get to him late. Black Onyx offers intrigue and value on Saturday.
10) Mylute – Midnight Lute – Stage Stop by Valid Expectations (Feb 26) $150,000 – Mylute ran a game second place to Revolutionary in theLouisiana Derby-Replay in March. But was no match for Revolutionary in the gallop out, as Revolutionary looked to already be on his way to Louisville. The blinkers were taken off for the Louisiana Derby, and showed a new dimension in making a strong late bid. Mylute’s resume is not the strongest, but his last race holds promise he will be passing horses late in the Kentucky Derby.
11) Charming Kitten -Kitten’s Joy – Iteration by Wild Again (April 20) Homebred – Charming Kitten has never had a race on dirt. All seven of his career races have either been on turf or synthetic surfaces. Charming Kitten’sticket to the Kentucky Derby was punched up after running a game second toJava’s War in the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay where he galloped out well withJava’s War after crossing the finishing line. Charming Kitten has been getting to chase Revolutionary around in the mornings at Churchill Downs. We will see how that translates on the track on Saturday.
12) Frac Daddy - Scat Daddy – Skipper’s Mate by Skip Away (Mar 5) $20,000 – Frac Daddy ran a distant second to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby-Replay. But mission accomplished. Frac Daddy is heading back to his home track of Churchill Downs to run in the Kentucky Derby 139, where he has ran his best races. Frac Daddy has been zipping around Churchill Downs in the morning, and giving Java’s War a run for his money. Frac Daddy is a handsome gray/roan son of Scat Daddy. He will still need to jump forward significantly to make an impact in the Kentucky Derby, but he looks to be moving in the right direction at this point in time.
12) Golden Soul - Perfect Soul – Hollywood Gold by Mr. Prospector(May 14) Homebred – Golden Soul sneaks in at the last spot. The chestnut son of Perfect Soul is well bred for grass, but all he knows at this point is dirt. He made a belated rally to capture the fourth place spot in the Louisiana Derby-Replay behind Revolution
Others Kentucky Derby Horses
Oxbow – Should return to front running ways in Derby. Arkansas Derby-Replay
Will Take Charge – Beat Oxbow in the Rebel-Replay
Palace Malice – Son of Curlin is well bred for an off track. Blue Grass Stakes-Replay
Lines of Battle – Well bred for dirt. Mystery horse should get to Churchill Downs soon. UAE Derby Winner-Replay
Fear The Kitten – On the bubble.
Carving – On the bubble.
Falling Sky – Set Pace in Arkansas Derby. Speedy colt will look to go right out.Sam Davis-Replay
Giant Finish – Last word is he just squeaked in Derby. Ran third in Spiral. Spiral Stakes-Replay
Additional Kentucky Derby Links
Kentucky Derby 2011 Top 12
2011 Kentucky Derby 12
Final Kentucky Derby 137 12 Of The Year—Subject To Possible Changes—Will Adjust Accordingly
***A Kentucky Derby Preview will be coming towards the end of the week—and a Kentucky Derby pick.***
(1)(2) Soldat – War Front – Le Relais by Coronado’s Quest (Apr) $180,000 – Soldat will finish the final ThoroughbredZones Kentucky Derby 12 on top. Soldat ran a disappointing 5th in his last prep race before the Kentucky Derby—Florida Derby. He was never really a factor that day. However I am putting a line through that race. He washed out before the race and they tried to rate him further back off the pace for the first time. That did not work out too well. Soldat will come into the Derby off a 5 week break. He should be fine with this. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and has proven his class by running 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf behind Pluck. As a 3-year-old he was very impressive running away in the stretch with an explosive late move over a sloppy track and Gulfstream in January. He followed that up with a determined win in the Fountain of Youth. Soldat has been working at Palm Meadows. His last two drills were 5 furlong breezes in 59.00 & 1:01.40. Kiaran McLaughlin is feeling confident about his 3-year-old colt heading into the Kentucky Derby. He has solid tactical speed and the distance of a mile and a quarter will not be an issue for him. Soldat looks ready to run a big race Saturday.
(2)(1) Dialed In – Mineshaft – Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat (Feb) $475,000 Dialed In shipped into Kentucky on 4/30 along with Soldat. How fitting they sit a top in the 1-2 spot. Dialed In slips to #2 in this final list. Dialed In is coming in off a game win in the Florida Derby, where he was well behind and wide. He was able to dig deep down and get to first passing the stubborn Shackleford in the final 100 yards. It was a huge try to catch a horse on the front end at Gulfstream that was ripping through solid fractions. Dialed In broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of his current form cycle. There are not too many trainers in this game that can get a horse ready better for the Kentucky Derby like Nick Zito can—who happens to be thrilled with his colt at this point. Dialed In has been breezing at Palm Meadows. Dialed In is a confirmed come from behind runner. He has a big late kick and the faster the pace is up front, the better his chances of winning will be. I expect a solid effort from him. Should show up on the scene late with his big kick and try to give Nick Zito Kentucky Derby winner #3.
(3)(10) Mucho Macho Man – Macho Uno – Ponche de Leona by Ponche (Jun) And here is the baby of the bunch. Its Mucho Macho Man. Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe in the Louisiana Derby right at the start, and that compromised his chances of winning. Nonetheless the large 17 hands colt still managed to finish in 3rd place. Mucho Macho Man has been a model of consistency during his 3-year-old campaign. In his most recent work he drilled a snappy 5 furlong breeze in 1:01.40 at Churchill Downs. We have indicated all along that Mucho Macho Man is a June foal, so he will not technically turn 3 until June 15—after the Belmont Stakes. He has been playing catch up all year in the maturation department. Mucho Macho Man is a large colt. He has a nice foundation. Some horses have digressed during their 3-year-old campaign, while other have progressed. If Mucho Macho Man can take another step forward in the #KyDerby he could very well be a solid presence in the late stages of the race. And another move forward is expected. He should be a square price.
(4)(7) Shackleford – Forestry – Oatsee by Unbridled (Feb) $275,000 Shackleford who was on the outside looking inin the graded earnings department for awhile is now back in and is almost certainly assured a spot in the starting gate Saturday. Shackleford was the near upset winner of the Florida Derby, where he set fast fractions the entire way, only to get nipped very late by Dialed In. It was a huge race for Shackleford. He showed he has some real speed, and can carry it pretty far. If Shackleford runs back to that race, he should be in the very least be a pace factor in the 137th running of the #KentuckyDerby. He should be one of a few horses that will vie for the lead early and try to keep it going all the way to the wire. Shackleford broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, and a win over the strip is always a positive. He has been working lights out at Churchill Downs. On 4/30 he ripped 5 furlongs in a sharp 58.80. Shackleford should be a big price. And at a big price he looks like he is ready to fire his best shot—which could be a big shot.
(5)(-) Archarcharch Arch Woodmans Dancer by Woodman (Mar) $60,000 Archarcharch debuted on our first Kentucky Derby 12 at #9 back in February. He slipped off, but his big Arkansas Derby win gets him back in it for the final. Archarcharch is a handsome, sharp looking son of Arch. He was off the pace in the Arkansas Derby, sitting off a very lively pace and closed down the center of the track full of run to get it done. He should once again use this same tactic in the Kentucky Derby. A fast pace will improve his chances a lot. Jon Court the jockey for Archarcharch will also be getting his first Kentucky Derby mount of his career. Archarcharch has been working nicely at Churchill Downs. On 4/29 he ripped a handily 5 furlongs in a snappy 59.40. Will Archarcharch be able to duplicate his big late run in the Kentucky Derby? That is the biggest question with him. All indications are he is ready to give it his best shot.
(6)(-) Nehro Mineshaft The Administrator by Afleet (Feb) $170,000 Nehro debuts on the final list. Nehro was a hard charging runner-up in both the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby. In the Arkansas Derby he was rallying to the outside of Archarcharch as they approached the wire, but came a bit short. Nonetheless is was another solid late rally that have many thinking if he can duplicate his last two efforts he will be in the mix of in the final furlong in the Kentucky Derby. He also has the same question mark as Archarcharch—can he do it again on 3 weeks rest. Steve Asmussen trains Nehro should have him the best he can for this race. Nehro is a February foal, so he is a little ahead of some of the others in the maturation department.
(7)(8) Pants On Fire Jump Start – Cabo de Noche by Cape Town (Mar) The Louisiana Derby winner has been working out very well since his last race. Pants On Fire has had two breezes. He worked a 5 furlong breeze on 4/23 in 1:00.80 at Palm Meadows and 4 furlong breeze at Churchill Downs in 47.80 on 5/1. These are solid signs coming into the week of the Kentucky Derby. He looks like a fit horse ready to go. He is a horse that like to run up on, or near the lead. I think he will look for a stalking trip not too far off the pace. Post Position will be a key factor in this. The biggest question is whether the mile and a quarter will be with in his range. He should be a square price at post time. Kelly Breen trains and Rosie Napravnik will ride. I would like to see this guy run a big race.
(8)(5) Uncle Mo - Indian Charlie – Playa Maya by Arch (Mar) $160,000 – Its still all systems go for the 2-year-old champion for the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Mo is coming off his shocking 3rd place finish in the Wood Memorial behind Tobys Corner and Arthurss Tale. He was sent off as the overwhelming 1/9 favorite, but came up empty in late stretch. It was found out after the race through tests that he had been suffering from a G1 tract infection (gastrointestinal inflammation)—and is currently still being treated with antibiotics. Uncle Mo has worked two times so far since being at Churchill Downs. On 4/26 he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 and most recently on 5/1 he breezed 1:01.60 at Churchill Downs. Uncle Mo sports a win over Churchill Downs—won the BC Juvenile last fall. The questions that surround Uncle Mo are a little perplexing. Has he fully recovered from his tract infection? Is he fit enough for the grueling mile and a quarter race, and will he be able to get the distance off such a light work tab? These are some big questions with only few more days until the Derby. The flip side is thishe has shown at age 2 he was clearly the fastest horse of this crop. He will need to revert back to that 2-year-old form in the Derby. Faces a stiff test. A fast and talented colt. Will he show up and run his race? If he does—he can silence his nay-sayers.
(9)(-) Brilliant Speed - Dynaformer Speed Succeeds by Gone West (Apr) Live Oak Plantations home bred is coming off a last to first win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. Brilliant Speed sat far off a slow pace in the Bluegrass Stakes and he uncorked a late power rally in the center of the track to go by Twinspired to seal the victory. Of course the Bluegrass is run over a synthetic surface —most of Brilliant Speeds success has come over the turf. His ability on a fast dirt track remains to be seen. His breeding indicates that he could very well handle the dirt. Dynaformer has had successful dirt and turf runners. Brilliant Speed will likely sit far off the pace again, as he did in the Bluegrass Stakes and try to uncork another late rally. He is one of those who could certainly be coming at the end to fill out trifectas and superfectas, if not better at a big price. He is a sharp looking well bred colt.
(10)(11) Stay Thirsty – Bernardini – Marozia by Storm Bird (Mar) $160,000-$500,000 Uncle Mos stablemate Stay Thirsty will round out the final horse on out Kentucky Derby 12 this year. Stay Thirsty is coming in off a lack luster 7th place finish, where he was beaten by 16 1/2 lengths by Dialed In. It was only one race, but would have had liked to seen a better effort. Stay Thirsty did beat Tobys Corner in the Gotham back in New York in March. Stay Thirsty has been at Churchill Downs working out. He breezed 5 furlongs on 4/14 in 1:01.80 and on 5/1 he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.60. Stay Thirsty is a little tricky to gauge. He is certainly a well bred horse, but this distance of a mile and a quarter might be a bit too far. If routing does not suit Stay Thirsty, a solid campaign in the 3-year-old sprint ranks could be in the offing. With that said he should go off and pretty juicy odds. All in all its a little hard to gauge what Stay Thirsty will do in the Derby. On that note using underneath at a big price could be worth it.
(11)(9) Midnight Interlude – War Chant – Midnight Kiss (NZ) by Groom Dancer (Apr) Bob Baffert is down to his final bullet with Santa Anita Derby winning Midnight Interlude. The Factor, who was Bob Bafferts top Derby prospect has been withdrawn from the Derby after his lack luster effort int eh Arkansas Derby where he displaced his palate. Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby off only a maiden win. He wore down a game Comma in to the Top in the final 100 yards to capture the GI victory and stamp his ticket to Churchill Downs. Midnight Interlude is a little light in the experience department, and will have to take another big step forward to be a factor in this years Kentucky Derby, but there are not too many trainers that can get the most out of their horses running in the Kentucky Derby as Bob Baffert. He should get a stalking trip. He should be a big price.
(12)(-) Comma to the Top Bwana Charlie Maggies Storm by Stormys Atlantic (Mar) $5,000-$22,000 The gelding Comma to the Top makes it on the Kentucky Derby 12 after Tobys Corner was declared he would not be able to start in Kentucky Derby 137 due to an injury. If there was not a bargain of the year in this years Kentucky Derby—here it is. Comma to the Top was an original $5,000 purchase. He was re-sold as a 2-year-old in training for $22,000. Since he has gone on to earn $778,600. Comma to the Top is the most experienced horse in this years Kentucky Derby with 13 career races—winning 6 times. Comma to the Tops game is speed. The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th start into his current form cycle. He will also me be making only his 3rd career start on a dirt. Comma to the Top ran a strong race on dirt in the Santa Anita Derby to just miss, getting nipped at the wire by Midnight Interlude. He set snappy fractions of 22.81, 47.33 1:11.53 and 1:36.05. The final time was a snappy 1:48.66. Comma to the Top has worked twice at Hollywood Park before the Derby—4/25 a 5 furlong breeze in 1:02.40 and on 5/1 in 1:00.40.
***A Kentucky Derby Preview will be coming towards the end of the week—and a Kentucky Derby pick.***
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