ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 is finally here. Same format as in previous years. Name, sire, dam, dam sire, date of birth, and the original first time purchase price if available. A tie for fourth place and twelfth place on this list. More Kentucky Derby links are available at the bottom of this post.
A Kentucky Derby 139 Close Up & Preview Coming
2013 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
April 30, 2013
1) Orb – Malibu Moon – Lady Liberty by Unbridled (Feb 24) Homebred – Orb started at #2 this year, but with his big win over Itsmyluckyday–who was #1 at the time on my first list will end up in the top spot this year. The son ofMalibu Moon ran down Violence in the Fountain of Youth-Replay in a race with very fast fractions. In the Florida Derby-Replay he ran downItsmyluckyday to win with authority in a race with turtle like fractions. Orb has looked very sharp in the mornings at Churchill Downs since shipping up from Payson Park. Orb has a solid 2-year-old foundation. He will be making his fourth start into his current form cycle. Distance is no issue with Orb. He means business when he digs in.
2) Revolutionary - War Pass – Runup The Colors by A.P. Indy (Feb 20) $80,000 – Revolutionary is coming into the Kentucky Derby looking good. The Kentucky Derby will be his second start into his form cycle. Revolutionary is a battle tested colt, who showed tremendous determination in winning the Withers-Replay at Aqueduct, after trailing the field. He showed that same determination in winning the Louisiana Derby-Replayover Mylute in a tight finish. Departing who finished third, came back to easily win the Illinois Derby. Revolutionary’s gallop outs have been very strong. He easily went on after the finish line in the Louisiana Derby. He has looked superb in the mornings. If he makes another move forward in the Kentucky Derby, he is a legitimate threat for the win.
3) Java’s War - War Pass – Java (GB) by Rainbow Quest (May 4) Homebred – After watching the replay of the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay several times, it’s still hard to believe Java’s War was able to get up and win. A very poor start at the gate, and went 7-wide in a last to first rally that will live on in the annals of racing history. Java’s War was installed at the #5 spot on my initial Kentucky Derby list, after running a strong second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby-Replay. Bred to run all day on the bottom, there is little doubt that the distance will not be an issue. There are still some concerns. Should be running well late. On a side note–Saturday will also be Java’s War Birthday.
4) Itsmyluckyday - Lawyer Ron – Viva La Slew by Doneraile Court (Mar 18) $47,000 – Itsmyluckyday kicked the year off at #1 on my first Kentucky Derby list. Itsmyluckyday has had the most starts of any horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby with ten, including seven starts a 2-year-old. No doubt the foundation is there. The big, strapping son of Lawyer Ron has put together some huge races this year so far. He broke a track record in winning the Holy Bull-Replay in January at Gulfstream Park. In his last he was no match for Orb in the Florida Derby-Replay, but in a race where he did not absolutely have to win, it’s a race to not get overly worried with. That was his first race back off a layoff. He has the size, speed and experience to be a player. The distance could be a fly in the ointment.
4) Goldencents – Into Mischief - Golden Works by Banker’s Gold(Mar 7) $5,500 – Goldencents is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain. An original $5,500 purchase, that was later resold for $62,000. Goldencents has six career starts, and has yet to run a poor race. It has not been the best year for California horses on the Derby Trail, but Goldencents has made up for it.Goldencents ran a big speed figure in the Santa Anita Derby-Replay. He ran right up on a quick pace, before putting away Flashback in the stretch, who came back to Goldencents a bit at the wire. Goldencents will be making his third start into his current form cycle in the Kentucky Derby. The biggest question is whether he will move forward, or backwards off big Santa Anita Derby win.
5) Verrazano – More Than Ready – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway (Jan 27) $250,000 – The undefeated son of More Than Ready is the likely post-time favorite when the gates open on Saturday. The lightly raced colt is coming off a win in the Wood Memorial-Replay, that was an oddly run race after one of the potential pace setters–Freedom Child never made it to the lead. The pace was slow, but Verrazano did what he needed to do, and came home quickly to beat Vyjack, and fend off Normandy Invasion. Verrazanois a good looking colt. He faces some questions, but the two biggest ones are–will he take another step forward in his progression as a 3-year-old on Saturday and is the distance too much to over come? Unraced at two. On a side note–Verrazano is actually the oldest horse in the field, being a January 27 foal.
6) Normandy Invasion – Tapit- Boston Lady by Boston Harbor (May 2) $145,000 – The late running son of Tapit almost got Verrazano in the final stages of the Wood Memorial-Replay, but ran out of running room. The son ofTapit has looked good in his AM drills at Churchill Downs. Normandy Invasion is considered a stone closer by many, but I expect he will not be as far behind as some may think watching some of his earlier career races. He looked very sharp in the post-parade on Wood Memorial Day. Normandy Invasiongalloped out well past Verrazano and Vyjack.
7) Overanalyze - Dixie Union – Unacloud by Unaccounted For (April 30) $380,000 – Overanalyze might be one of this years most underrated horse in the Kentucky Derby. Speed figure folks were not all that impressed with his Arkansas Derby-Replay win, but it was professional and convincing. He was an isolated winner and went out on his own alone. Overanalyze has a nice resume that includes two Grade II wins as well as his Grade I Arkansas Derby win. He seems to be flying under the radar, and of Todd Pletcher’s group of horses, this guy looks like the sneakiest one. Ran third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois back in October.
8) Vyjack - Into Mischief – Life Happened by Stravinsky (Feb 11) $600,000 – Vyjack is a big and strong son of Into Mischief. He ran an admirable third in the Wood Memorial-Replay behind Verraza
9) Black Onyx - Rock Hard Ten – Kalahari Cat by Cape Town (April 15) $125,000 – Kelly Breen and Joe Bravo will be in town to try to win the Kentucky Derby with this handsome and imposing looking son of Rock Hard Ten. Black Onyx is considered a synthetic/turf horse only, but that is not the case. Even though he ran a poor race on dirt at Gulfstream Park on January 1, he has had success on dirt. He won over Aqueduct’s main track in an off the turf race last November. Black Onyx stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by winning the Spiral Stakes-Replay at Turfway Park. He kept Uncaptured at bay, who could not get to him late. Black Onyx offers intrigue and value on Saturday.
10) Mylute – Midnight Lute – Stage Stop by Valid Expectations (Feb 26) $150,000 – Mylute ran a game second place to Revolutionary in theLouisiana Derby-Replay in March. But was no match for Revolutionary in the gallop out, as Revolutionary looked to already be on his way to Louisville. The blinkers were taken off for the Louisiana Derby, and showed a new dimension in making a strong late bid. Mylute’s resume is not the strongest, but his last race holds promise he will be passing horses late in the Kentucky Derby.
11) Charming Kitten -Kitten’s Joy – Iteration by Wild Again (April 20) Homebred – Charming Kitten has never had a race on dirt. All seven of his career races have either been on turf or synthetic surfaces. Charming Kitten’sticket to the Kentucky Derby was punched up after running a game second toJava’s War in the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay where he galloped out well withJava’s War after crossing the finishing line. Charming Kitten has been getting to chase Revolutionary around in the mornings at Churchill Downs. We will see how that translates on the track on Saturday.
12) Frac Daddy - Scat Daddy – Skipper’s Mate by Skip Away (Mar 5) $20,000 – Frac Daddy ran a distant second to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby-Replay. But mission accomplished. Frac Daddy is heading back to his home track of Churchill Downs to run in the Kentucky Derby 139, where he has ran his best races. Frac Daddy has been zipping around Churchill Downs in the morning, and giving Java’s War a run for his money. Frac Daddy is a handsome gray/roan son of Scat Daddy. He will still need to jump forward significantly to make an impact in the Kentucky Derby, but he looks to be moving in the right direction at this point in time.
12) Golden Soul - Perfect Soul – Hollywood Gold by Mr. Prospector(May 14) Homebred – Golden Soul sneaks in at the last spot. The chestnut son of Perfect Soul is well bred for grass, but all he knows at this point is dirt. He made a belated rally to capture the fourth place spot in the Louisiana Derby-Replay behind Revolution
Others Kentucky Derby Horses
Oxbow – Should return to front running ways in Derby. Arkansas Derby-Replay
Will Take Charge – Beat Oxbow in the Rebel-Replay
Palace Malice – Son of Curlin is well bred for an off track. Blue Grass Stakes-Replay
Lines of Battle – Well bred for dirt. Mystery horse should get to Churchill Downs soon. UAE Derby Winner-Replay
Fear The Kitten – On the bubble.
Carving – On the bubble.
Falling Sky – Set Pace in Arkansas Derby. Speedy colt will look to go right out.Sam Davis-Replay
Giant Finish – Last word is he just squeaked in Derby. Ran third in Spiral. Spiral Stakes-Replay
Additional Kentucky Derby Links
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