2011 Kentucky Derby 12
Final Kentucky Derby 137 12 Of The Year—Subject To Possible Changes—Will Adjust Accordingly
***A Kentucky Derby Preview will be coming towards the end of the week—and a Kentucky Derby pick.***
(1)(2) Soldat – War Front – Le Relais by Coronado’s Quest (Apr) $180,000 – Soldat will finish the final ThoroughbredZones Kentucky Derby 12 on top. Soldat ran a disappointing 5th in his last prep race before the Kentucky Derby—Florida Derby. He was never really a factor that day. However I am putting a line through that race. He washed out before the race and they tried to rate him further back off the pace for the first time. That did not work out too well. Soldat will come into the Derby off a 5 week break. He should be fine with this. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and has proven his class by running 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf behind Pluck. As a 3-year-old he was very impressive running away in the stretch with an explosive late move over a sloppy track and Gulfstream in January. He followed that up with a determined win in the Fountain of Youth. Soldat has been working at Palm Meadows. His last two drills were 5 furlong breezes in 59.00 & 1:01.40. Kiaran McLaughlin is feeling confident about his 3-year-old colt heading into the Kentucky Derby. He has solid tactical speed and the distance of a mile and a quarter will not be an issue for him. Soldat looks ready to run a big race Saturday.
(2)(1) Dialed In – Mineshaft – Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat (Feb) $475,000 Dialed In shipped into Kentucky on 4/30 along with Soldat. How fitting they sit a top in the 1-2 spot. Dialed In slips to #2 in this final list. Dialed In is coming in off a game win in the Florida Derby, where he was well behind and wide. He was able to dig deep down and get to first passing the stubborn Shackleford in the final 100 yards. It was a huge try to catch a horse on the front end at Gulfstream that was ripping through solid fractions. Dialed In broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of his current form cycle. There are not too many trainers in this game that can get a horse ready better for the Kentucky Derby like Nick Zito can—who happens to be thrilled with his colt at this point. Dialed In has been breezing at Palm Meadows. Dialed In is a confirmed come from behind runner. He has a big late kick and the faster the pace is up front, the better his chances of winning will be. I expect a solid effort from him. Should show up on the scene late with his big kick and try to give Nick Zito Kentucky Derby winner #3.
(3)(10) Mucho Macho Man – Macho Uno – Ponche de Leona by Ponche (Jun) And here is the baby of the bunch. Its Mucho Macho Man. Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe in the Louisiana Derby right at the start, and that compromised his chances of winning. Nonetheless the large 17 hands colt still managed to finish in 3rd place. Mucho Macho Man has been a model of consistency during his 3-year-old campaign. In his most recent work he drilled a snappy 5 furlong breeze in 1:01.40 at Churchill Downs. We have indicated all along that Mucho Macho Man is a June foal, so he will not technically turn 3 until June 15—after the Belmont Stakes. He has been playing catch up all year in the maturation department. Mucho Macho Man is a large colt. He has a nice foundation. Some horses have digressed during their 3-year-old campaign, while other have progressed. If Mucho Macho Man can take another step forward in the #KyDerby he could very well be a solid presence in the late stages of the race. And another move forward is expected. He should be a square price.
(4)(7) Shackleford – Forestry – Oatsee by Unbridled (Feb) $275,000 Shackleford who was on the outside looking inin the graded earnings department for awhile is now back in and is almost certainly assured a spot in the starting gate Saturday. Shackleford was the near upset winner of the Florida Derby, where he set fast fractions the entire way, only to get nipped very late by Dialed In. It was a huge race for Shackleford. He showed he has some real speed, and can carry it pretty far. If Shackleford runs back to that race, he should be in the very least be a pace factor in the 137th running of the #KentuckyDerby. He should be one of a few horses that will vie for the lead early and try to keep it going all the way to the wire. Shackleford broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, and a win over the strip is always a positive. He has been working lights out at Churchill Downs. On 4/30 he ripped 5 furlongs in a sharp 58.80. Shackleford should be a big price. And at a big price he looks like he is ready to fire his best shot—which could be a big shot.
(5)(-) Archarcharch Arch Woodmans Dancer by Woodman (Mar) $60,000 Archarcharch debuted on our first Kentucky Derby 12 at #9 back in February. He slipped off, but his big Arkansas Derby win gets him back in it for the final. Archarcharch is a handsome, sharp looking son of Arch. He was off the pace in the Arkansas Derby, sitting off a very lively pace and closed down the center of the track full of run to get it done. He should once again use this same tactic in the Kentucky Derby. A fast pace will improve his chances a lot. Jon Court the jockey for Archarcharch will also be getting his first Kentucky Derby mount of his career. Archarcharch has been working nicely at Churchill Downs. On 4/29 he ripped a handily 5 furlongs in a snappy 59.40. Will Archarcharch be able to duplicate his big late run in the Kentucky Derby? That is the biggest question with him. All indications are he is ready to give it his best shot.
(6)(-) Nehro Mineshaft The Administrator by Afleet (Feb) $170,000 Nehro debuts on the final list. Nehro was a hard charging runner-up in both the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby. In the Arkansas Derby he was rallying to the outside of Archarcharch as they approached the wire, but came a bit short. Nonetheless is was another solid late rally that have many thinking if he can duplicate his last two efforts he will be in the mix of in the final furlong in the Kentucky Derby. He also has the same question mark as Archarcharch—can he do it again on 3 weeks rest. Steve Asmussen trains Nehro should have him the best he can for this race. Nehro is a February foal, so he is a little ahead of some of the others in the maturation department.
(7)(8) Pants On Fire Jump Start – Cabo de Noche by Cape Town (Mar) The Louisiana Derby winner has been working out very well since his last race. Pants On Fire has had two breezes. He worked a 5 furlong breeze on 4/23 in 1:00.80 at Palm Meadows and 4 furlong breeze at Churchill Downs in 47.80 on 5/1. These are solid signs coming into the week of the Kentucky Derby. He looks like a fit horse ready to go. He is a horse that like to run up on, or near the lead. I think he will look for a stalking trip not too far off the pace. Post Position will be a key factor in this. The biggest question is whether the mile and a quarter will be with in his range. He should be a square price at post time. Kelly Breen trains and Rosie Napravnik will ride. I would like to see this guy run a big race.
(8)(5) Uncle Mo - Indian Charlie – Playa Maya by Arch (Mar) $160,000 – Its still all systems go for the 2-year-old champion for the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Mo is coming off his shocking 3rd place finish in the Wood Memorial behind Tobys Corner and Arthurss Tale. He was sent off as the overwhelming 1/9 favorite, but came up empty in late stretch. It was found out after the race through tests that he had been suffering from a G1 tract infection (gastrointestinal inflammation)—and is currently still being treated with antibiotics. Uncle Mo has worked two times so far since being at Churchill Downs. On 4/26 he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 and most recently on 5/1 he breezed 1:01.60 at Churchill Downs. Uncle Mo sports a win over Churchill Downs—won the BC Juvenile last fall. The questions that surround Uncle Mo are a little perplexing. Has he fully recovered from his tract infection? Is he fit enough for the grueling mile and a quarter race, and will he be able to get the distance off such a light work tab? These are some big questions with only few more days until the Derby. The flip side is thishe has shown at age 2 he was clearly the fastest horse of this crop. He will need to revert back to that 2-year-old form in the Derby. Faces a stiff test. A fast and talented colt. Will he show up and run his race? If he does—he can silence his nay-sayers.
(9)(-) Brilliant Speed - Dynaformer Speed Succeeds by Gone West (Apr) Live Oak Plantations home bred is coming off a last to first win in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. Brilliant Speed sat far off a slow pace in the Bluegrass Stakes and he uncorked a late power rally in the center of the track to go by Twinspired to seal the victory. Of course the Bluegrass is run over a synthetic surface —most of Brilliant Speeds success has come over the turf. His ability on a fast dirt track remains to be seen. His breeding indicates that he could very well handle the dirt. Dynaformer has had successful dirt and turf runners. Brilliant Speed will likely sit far off the pace again, as he did in the Bluegrass Stakes and try to uncork another late rally. He is one of those who could certainly be coming at the end to fill out trifectas and superfectas, if not better at a big price. He is a sharp looking well bred colt.
(10)(11) Stay Thirsty – Bernardini – Marozia by Storm Bird (Mar) $160,000-$500,000 Uncle Mos stablemate Stay Thirsty will round out the final horse on out Kentucky Derby 12 this year. Stay Thirsty is coming in off a lack luster 7th place finish, where he was beaten by 16 1/2 lengths by Dialed In. It was only one race, but would have had liked to seen a better effort. Stay Thirsty did beat Tobys Corner in the Gotham back in New York in March. Stay Thirsty has been at Churchill Downs working out. He breezed 5 furlongs on 4/14 in 1:01.80 and on 5/1 he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.60. Stay Thirsty is a little tricky to gauge. He is certainly a well bred horse, but this distance of a mile and a quarter might be a bit too far. If routing does not suit Stay Thirsty, a solid campaign in the 3-year-old sprint ranks could be in the offing. With that said he should go off and pretty juicy odds. All in all its a little hard to gauge what Stay Thirsty will do in the Derby. On that note using underneath at a big price could be worth it.
(11)(9) Midnight Interlude – War Chant – Midnight Kiss (NZ) by Groom Dancer (Apr) Bob Baffert is down to his final bullet with Santa Anita Derby winning Midnight Interlude. The Factor, who was Bob Bafferts top Derby prospect has been withdrawn from the Derby after his lack luster effort int eh Arkansas Derby where he displaced his palate. Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby off only a maiden win. He wore down a game Comma in to the Top in the final 100 yards to capture the GI victory and stamp his ticket to Churchill Downs. Midnight Interlude is a little light in the experience department, and will have to take another big step forward to be a factor in this years Kentucky Derby, but there are not too many trainers that can get the most out of their horses running in the Kentucky Derby as Bob Baffert. He should get a stalking trip. He should be a big price.
(12)(-) Comma to the Top Bwana Charlie Maggies Storm by Stormys Atlantic (Mar) $5,000-$22,000 The gelding Comma to the Top makes it on the Kentucky Derby 12 after Tobys Corner was declared he would not be able to start in Kentucky Derby 137 due to an injury. If there was not a bargain of the year in this years Kentucky Derby—here it is. Comma to the Top was an original $5,000 purchase. He was re-sold as a 2-year-old in training for $22,000. Since he has gone on to earn $778,600. Comma to the Top is the most experienced horse in this years Kentucky Derby with 13 career races—winning 6 times. Comma to the Tops game is speed. The Kentucky Derby will be his 4th start into his current form cycle. He will also me be making only his 3rd career start on a dirt. Comma to the Top ran a strong race on dirt in the Santa Anita Derby to just miss, getting nipped at the wire by Midnight Interlude. He set snappy fractions of 22.81, 47.33 1:11.53 and 1:36.05. The final time was a snappy 1:48.66. Comma to the Top has worked twice at Hollywood Park before the Derby—4/25 a 5 furlong breeze in 1:02.40 and on 5/1 in 1:00.40.
***A Kentucky Derby Preview will be coming towards the end of the week—and a Kentucky Derby pick.***
No comments:
Post a Comment