5/1/12
Adjustments and changes will be made in the coming days as some horses may drop out. Mark Valeski will not run. The door has opened for Optimizer. My Adonis is now next in line if someone else drops out. Another look at the Kentucky Derby field will come Friday—Preview & Pick. We will know post positions and if the weather will be a factor in Kentucky Derby 138.
(1)(1) Union Rags – Dixie Union – Tempo by Gone West (May) $145,000 – Bought back for $390,000 He started the year on top and he will end the year on top. Union Rags will go into the Kentucky Derby ready to go. He will vie for favoritism with Bodemeister. Union Rags will enter the Kentucky Derby coming off a 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby GI in which he did not have the best of trips, but was able to swing out and make a rally on a speed favoring track. The big, strong son of Dixie Union will go into the Derby off a 5 week break. Michael Matz is taking the same route he took with Barbaro in winning the 2006 Derby. So far everything has worked out well. He had a very strong work on Saturday which was the talk of the backside. He turns 3-years-old on Thursday. He is bigger and has matured wonderfully. Some say distance is a concern, but he is built solidly and galloped out past both Hansen and Take Charge Indy. Union Rags has shown he likes the Churchill Downs surface. He will get his chance to strut his stuff and blossom into a champion. Union Rags is the legitimate #1 this year.
(2)(2) Hansen – Tapit – Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat (Apr) Homebred – The nearly white galloping ghost will finish where he started at #2. The leading 2011 juvenile colt is coming off a gutsy 2nd place finish in the Bluegrass Stakes GI. I mentioned that in my previous list of how that race went down. I was tempted to drop Hansen down the list, but stuck with him. There is no doubt Hansen is a fighter with plenty of heart. He showed tremendous heart in fighting to the wire in the Bluegrass Stakes GI to hold 2nd place. The question is if he will be able to get the mile and a quarter distance in the Kentucky Derby. He did show he could rate a bit too easily win the Gotham Stakes GIII. An outside post would be an advantage for him. There is going to be plenty off speed in this race and depending on where he breaks from, he could have a significant impact. He will have to avoid getting into a speed duel, but he might not have a choice in the matter if he is not relaxed. He is happy and content going in. His owner Dr. Hansen remains supremely confident in his colt. He has been a great story for racing and a win would be a fairytale ending.
(3)(-)Bodemeister Empire Maker Untouched by Storm Cat (Apr) $260,000 Big bad Bodemeister debuts in the #3 spot in the final Derby list. Bob Baffert once again will enter the Kentucky Derby locked and loaded. He turned in the most impressive prep race of the year by any 3-year-old in crushing his foes in the Arkansas Derby GI by 9 1/2 lengths. He raced right to the front and never looked back. He received a huge speed figure in winning. Bodemeister has shown he has a high cruising speed. The only negative that Bodemeister may have is the fact he has never had a race as a 2-year-old. No horse since 1882 (Apollo) has won the Kentucky Derby GI without a race at two, but that does not mean he cant win. The other concern is how will he run coming off such a huge effort? He did win easy, but was urged on by Mike Smith when asked for a little more. He turned in a brilliant work on Saturday, wowing the clockers. With that said, Bodemeister looks to be coming into this ready to fire his best shot. Bodemeister is a speed horse who runs near the front. He goes and thats it. One issue he will have to face is the fact there will be other speed in the race. Can he overcome the pressure and expected hot pace? He will also be asked to win at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter after just coming off a career best race four weeks ago. Sheer talent could trump all.
(4)(4) Take Charge Indy – A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady by Dehere (Mar) $80,000 – The 4th place finisher in last years Breeders Cup juvenile is #4 here. He won the Florida Derby GI with a front running gambit under the guidance of Calvin Borel. He also defeated Union Rags in the process. The son of the legendary A.P. Indy has had 6 weeks to get ready for this. He has 4 races under his best as a 2-year-old giving him a solid foundation. He turned in a powerful work in Florida last week that left many observers wowing. Take Charge Indy is coming into this race sitting on a sharp effort. No doubt his breeding gets the mile and a quarter. He will need to avoid getting caught up in any speed duel that may develop. He has shown he can sit off the pace if need be, but that was without blinkers on. Take Charge Indy will need to take another step forward in order to be a player. He looks like he could very well be ready to take that step.
(5)(3) Creative Cause – Giant’s Causeway – Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer (Apr) $135,000 – Are we noticing something here? Creative Cause will check in at the #5 in my final list. The top five finishers from last year Breeders Cup Juvenile will be making starts in the Kentucky Derby. This group so far has proven resilient and healthy. Creative Cause has been as consistent as any horse in the field. He has run well in everyone of his races. He is a stalker with tactical speed. He has shown he likes the CD surface and a repeat effort of that race makes him threat in the stretch. He also defeated Bodemeister in the San Felipe GII back in March. He definitely stacks up well in the class department. His pedigree indicates the mile and a quarter is well within his range.
(6)(5) Gemologist – Tiznow – Crystal Shard by Mr. Prospector (Jan) $310,000 – The undefeated Gemologist closes out at #6. The WinStar farms son of Tiznow showed tremendous courage in winning the Wood Memorial GI, turning back the hard charging Alpha to win it. He dug in and galloped out nicely after the race indicating that the mile and a quarter should be within his range. The final time of the Wood Memorial was a bit slow, but track observers felt the track was deeper than normal. The biggest positives with Gemologist is the fact he has won two races at Churchill Downs already. Always a big plus when a horse has been successful over a particular racing surface. He will easily face the best group of horses he has ever been in with before, but the same can be said for many others. Once again Gemologist is a horse who will likely run up near the pace. He is another horse that could be involved in a wicked speed duel that could compromise his chances. Pace makes the race and a lot could hinge on that as to whether he will be there late.
(7)(-)Dullahan - Even the Score Mining My Own by Smart Strike (Feb) $250,000 Dullahan was an impressive winner in taking the Bluegrass Stakes GI a few weeks ago with an explosive late kick to run down a game Hansen in deep stretch. Visually its the type of a move you like to see from a horse heading into the Kentucky Derby. Dullahan is yet another horse coming into the Kentucky Derby who ran in the 2011 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He did not disgrace himself in finishing in 4th place. He was not going backwards late, although he was 6 lengths behind. The jury is still out however as to whether Dullahan is good enough on dirt as he is on synthetic and turf surfaces. The Kentucky Derby will be his fourth career start on dirt. His first two career races were at Churchill Downs where he finished 3rd and 5th place several lengths behind. That was a long time ago. He certainly has a style of running that should have him coming late if he gets over the surface. He is a strong closer and should get a good set up for his late power kick. If he duplicates his Bluegrass look out. Question is, is if he is good enough on dirt? Dullahan is a half brother to Mine That Bird—same dam Mining My Own. If he wins the Derby she would be the only dam in history to drop two Kentucky Derby winners.
(8)(6) Alpha – Bernardini – Munnaya by Nijinksy (Mar) – Alpha drops down to # 8. Alpha was a hard charging 2nd place to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial GI in a race where he looked like he was poised to surge by Gemologist, but that was not the case. Since his 2nd place finish he has been dealing with a foot infection from scratches and nicks he sustained in the Wood Memorial GI. There was continuing speculation that he might not be entered, but after turning in a good workout connections have seen fit to give him the green light. Sheikh Mohammed of the international power house Godolphin Stables on several occasions has tried to win the Kentucky Derby while preparing his horses in Dubai. This year he kept Alpha in the United States in an attempt to hopefully change his luck. Alpha has tactical speed and can sit off the pace, something that could very well benefit him this year.
(9)(7)Went The Day Well – Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie’s Day (Can) by Tiznow (Mar) – Last years Kentucky Derby heroes are back this year with Went The Day Well, who is literally following the same footsteps of Animal Kingdom last year. Went The Day Well will come into the Kentucky Derby off a 6 week break. Went The Day Well has shown he can run well on dirt. He broke his maiden on dirt down at Gulfstream Park back in early March. He turned in a very good work last week. It was so good trainer Graham Motion indicated it might have been his best work ever. Blinkers were added for that work. John Velasquez is back again to try to duplicate the Animal Kingdom Derby win. Went the Day Well will run with blinkers on it the Kentucky Derby so he does not lose focus. It will come down as to whether he is good enough to win it.
(10)(3) I’ll Have Another – Flower Alley – Arch’s Gal by Arch (Apr) ($11,000) – Ill Have Another drops down to the #10 through no real fault of his own. The bargain buy of this years Kentucky Derby crop has already earned $634,000 after being purchased for the bargain basement price of $11,000. Ill Have Another will be making his 6th career start in this years Kentucky Derby. He has had really only one bad race in his careera 6th place finish over a sloppy Saratoga surface in the Hopeful GI. Ill Have Another has knocked heads with Creative Cause all spring. He has a pedigree that says a mile and a quarter is within his range. He has tactical speed, but anything too close to the front runners, if they are going too fast, could be a big negative. I find him to be one of the more interesting horses in the race. I dont really know what to expect.
(11)(-) Daddy Nose Best Scat Daddy Follow Your Bliss by Thunder Gulch (Mar) $35,000 - Daddy Nose Best debuts in the #11 spot for the final Kentucky Derby list of 2012. Daddy Nose Best turned in one of the better prep race wins of the year, but many have over looked the Sunland Derby GIII. He broke behind the field, but quickly engaged a fast pace. He tracked that quick pace and dug in to surge by Isnt he Clever for the win. The race gives a good indication he will be one of the horses who will find his best stride late in the race. Daddy Nose Best might have the best foundation in the race. He has 8 starts as a 2-year-old primarily on turf. Daddy Nose Best has had ample time to recover from his Sunland Derby GIII win. He will be coming in off a 6 week layoff. He should be fit and ready for a solid effort. Steve Asmussen trains Daddy Nose Best. Steve Asmussen will also saddle Sabercat (Delta Jackpot GIII Winner) in the Derby. Daddy Nose Best dam sire is Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. He will be a decent price with a chance to get in there.
(12)(10)El Padrino – Pulpit – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway (Jan) $210,000 – The forgotten horse in this years Kentucky Derby. El Padrino will check in at the #12 spot in the finale. El Padrino finished in 4th place in the Florida Derby GI and has fell out of favor with some, but jockey Javier Castellano seemed more interested in keeping Union Rags pinned inside along the rail. El Padrino is the second of a pair of Todd Pletcher trainees that will run in the Kentucky Derby this year. El Padrino has run well in all 6 of his career races. El Padrino has a stalking style of running that will benefit him well with a solid trip. He will no doubt be overlooked by many and will be the longer priced horse of the two Todd Pletcher trainees. He should be a bit further off the pace then some of the others. Is he good enough, is the question?
The Long Shots
Prospective will be coming into the race off a so-so effort in the Bluegrass. He is rounding into form and that race served as a good tighter for the Kentucky Derby. He has looked good in the mornings at Churchill Downs. He could be sitting on a big race. He has a solid foundation and an edge on some of the others in the maturation department. He could be dangerous. Rousing Sermon will go off a huge price in this years Kentucky Derby. The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee had a big 2-year-old campaign, but has not duplicated that success as a 3-year-old. He is a closer whos dam sire Awesome Again won the Breeders Cup Classic. The faster they go up front the better for him. He has a solid foundation. Done Talking will go off at a big price. The winner of the Illinois Derby GIII back on April 7th. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year. In the Illinois Derby GIII he weaved through traffic, coming from far out of it to earn the win. He has shown he can handle traffic. He will be far back again in the Derby. He is a grinder who will appreciate the longer distance. He will do his best running late. Optimizer only has one win under his belt, but the D. Wayne Lukas colt ran his best race in the Rebel GII where he sloed with a rush to finish 2nd. He is bred for the trip. He would need to move forward off his poor Arkansas Derby GII effort. Laision is the sleeper of sleepers. Has done little as a 3-year-old. Bob Baffert also has Bodemeister in here. Laision has gotten over the track better at Churchill Downs. He will be well off the pace and try to make a late bid. The faster they go up front the better off for his style. Laision will be way under the radar. Daddy Long Legs The UAE Derby winner has run the longest prep race. He also ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile finishing far behind in his first career start on dirt. What to expect here is a bit of a mystery. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot GIII last year. Trained by Steve Asmussen, who will also saddle Daddy Nose Best. Sabercat could be forwardly placed in the early stages of the race
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